Alabama’s presidential primary is relevant again.

Well, sort of.

When the state Legislature voted in 2006 to move the state’s presidential primary from the first Tuesday in June to Super Tuesday — the first Tuesday in February — lawmakers and others envisioned a parade of presidential hopefuls making their way through Alabama as part of a barnstorming Super Tuesday tour.

Then, New York and California moved their primaries to Super Tuesday.

“We got bigfooted,” said David Lanoue, chairman of the University of Alabama’s political science department.

Now, Alabama has one of the smallest delegate totals up for grabs in the 23-state primary election on Feb. 5.

Although the remaining candidates don’t plan to pay much attention to Alabama this week, it doesn’t mean the state primary will be totally irrelevant.

“In a situation where you have at least two candidates on either side in a competitive race, the battle is delegates,” Lanoue said. “In a race like this, you could have a small number of delegates making the difference, so every state counts at this point.”

Polls taken within the last month show the Democratic race a virtual dead heat between New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. On the Republican side, Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee appear neck-and-neck.
The real leader, however, appears to be “undecided.”

Thirty-three percent of respondents in a recent Mobile Press-Register/University of South Alabama poll of likely Democratic primary voters said they had not decided on a candidate. Clinton received 31 percent, while Obama garnered 28 percent. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina received 8 percent.

A statewide survey of likely Republican voters by the Press-Register and University of South Alabama found Huckabee with 25 percent and McCain with 22 percent. The biggest category — 29 percent — was undecided.

Lanoue said the Democratic primary in South Carolina and the Republican primary in Florida could help Alabama’s undecided voters make their decision.

With Huckabee trailing in the Florida polls and reportedly running out of money, Lanoue said one of the most interesting sidebars to the Alabama primary will be seeing who gains Huckabee supporters if he falters before Super Tuesday.

Lanoue said some may break for McCain, even though Huckabee’s base is Christian conservatives and McCain turned off that group during his last presidential campaign. This time, Lanoue said, McCain has been courting them.

“McCain will still be a defense candidate, but I think Huckabee has led him to appeal to the Christian conservatives that rejected him before,” Lanoue said. “The wildcard is whether or not the (Christian conservatives) would take a second look at Romney.”

Election officials estimate it will cost Alabama $3 million to hold the election, making one wonder if Alabama will gain enough relevance to make it worth it.

“Ultimately, we’ll have to see what the turnout is like in November and in the primary here,” Lanoue said.