The GOP contest for who sits in our No. 2 U.S. Senate seat has been delayed until July 14, 2020, due to the coronavirus. The winner of the battle between Jeff Sessions and Tommy Tuberville will more than likely be our junior U.S. senator for six years.
Neither are spring chickens. Sessions will be 74, and Tuberville will be 66 when the winner takes office. This is not the optimum age to be a freshman senator because seniority equates to superiority in the chamber. Given their ages on arrival, neither will be given much deference or have much influence.
Sessions’ previous 20 years in the Senate goes for naught. He does not get his seniority back. Instead, he goes to the back of the line, as would Tuberville.
Sessions really does not want to be influential. During his tenure, he wanted to be the choir boy and Eagle Scout of the Senate. He was the most honest and conservative member of the chamber. He proudly wore those badges and would again.
Tuberville is planning to be President Donald Trump’s bodyguard and valet. He will not know where the bathroom is, what committees he has been placed on, or where to sit, much less how to pass a bill or get anything accomplished for Alabama. After about six years, he will realize he is a senator from Alabama, not Arkansas or Florida. His only mission as a campaigner appears to be that he can shoot a gun and wants to be Trump’s pawn.
The irony with this Trump love affair is legitimate polling that points to a Tuberville victory also reveals a Trump loss. Trump probably is not going to be president when either Tuberville or Sessions takes office. Anybody with a cursory knowledge of the Electoral College realizes that if he loses any of the pivotal battleground states of Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota or Pennsylvania, he loses the White House. If Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, current polling clearly has him favored to carry all of those states. He is pretty much a lock to win his native state of Pennsylvania.
The winner of the Tuberville-Sessions contest will beat our anomaly Democratic interloper Doug Jones, probably 60% to 40%. Being the Republican nominee for a U.S. Senate seat in the Heart of Dixie is tantamount to election, especially in a presidential election year with Trump atop the ticket.
It really does not matter who is elected; both will vote conservatively and look at their roles as being a reactionary ideologue. Neither will garner much power.
However, that does not matter when you have Sen. Richard Shelby as your senior senator. He has enough power that we really do not need a second senator.
Most pundits were saying Tuberville had momentum and was heading toward a victory, especially with Trump’s endorsement. However, with 15 weeks to prepare rather than 10 days, it is a new ballgame.
Allow me to share two cardinal caveats I see. First, Alabamians have shown a unique but overwhelming aversion to one politician endorsing another for office. I was taught this rule of state politics when I was a young legislator.
It is a cardinal rule in Alabama politics that you do not get involved in other races. Alabamians have a very dim view of the practice. They seem to inherently say: “We elected you to your office. You ought to be thankful for that and not show arrogance that you are so good and anointed that you want to tell us who to vote to place in another office.”
George Wallace, when he was at the height of his popularity, would endorse someone, and invariably that candidate would lose. Lest y’all forget, Trump endorsed Luther Strange for this seat; he then lost the nomination to Roy Moore. Then Trump endorsed Moore in the general election, and he immediately lost to Jones. Alabamians do not think much of endorsements; in fact they resent them.
The second caveat is Alabamians will overwhelmingly vote for someone from their neck of the woods. It is called “friends-and-neighbors politics.” Sessions lives in and is from Mobile. The voter turnout in Mobile-Baldwin is going to be the highest in the state because there is a tossup runoff race between Jerry Carl and Bill Hightower to fill Bradley Byrne’s 1st Congressional District seat.
We will see in mid-July.